Obsession with Predictability

Agility isn't knowing what's coming. It's being ready when it does.

"If you want absolute certainty, you're in the wrong business." ¹

Some organizations adopt Agile hoping to become more adaptive, but then immediately reach for deterministic schedules, fixed scope commitments, and velocity charts treated as contracts. This isn't agility. It's a performance of agility staged for stakeholders who still crave certainty.

What fuels this anti-pattern is not malice, but anxiety. Predictability offers emotional comfort in uncertain environments. Executives want to know if investments are on track. Product managers want to assure customers. Teams want to avoid punishment. But when predictability becomes the goal rather than an outcome of good systems, it stifles the very feedback and flexibility Agile is built to support.

Where It Comes From

The roots of predictability addiction trace back to traditional project management and industrial-era thinking.² In a world of physical goods and mechanical processes, planning was reliable because variables were known and repeatable. But software is not a manufacturing line. It's creative, constantly evolving, and heavily dependent on discovery, feedback, and emergent understanding.

Agile emerged to deal with exactly this complexity. The Agile Manifesto explicitly values responding to change over following a plan.³ Yet legacy habits persist. Organizations attempt to map software work onto rigid timelines, demand sprint-by-sprint delivery forecasts, and report status in ways that ignore the inherently emergent nature of real-world development.

A Real-World Example

A mid-sized fintech team was praised early on for consistent delivery, so leadership began requiring precise quarterly commitments. Discovery work was discouraged because it didn't "fit the forecast". The team began padding estimates, hiding risk, and avoiding innovation. Eventually, despite appearing "predictable", their product fell behind competitors who embraced faster feedback and adaptation.

After leadership was coached to track lead time, customer-reported value, and number of informed pivots, pressure shifted from premature certainty to responsible learning.

Delivery became less theatrical and more real.

How It Hurts Agile Teams & What Shifts It

When predictability is prioritized above all else, teams suppress discovery, experimentation, and cross-functional collaboration in favor of staying "on plan". Metrics are manipulated to show stability even when value delivery suffers. Psychological safety erodes. Teams avoid raising risks or challenging unrealistic timelines. Delivery becomes more brittle. Surprises are hidden until they become crises.

What shifts this pattern is the move from forecasting as a control mechanism to forecasting as a learning conversation. It means building systems that deliver just enough predictability to align stakeholders without stifling emergence.

Instead of locking in delivery dates, high-trust Agile organizations align around outcomes, use empirical metrics, and regularly replan based on what they learn.

Balancing Predictability and Agility

Not all demands for predictability are irrational. Some organizations have legitimate constraints, such as regulatory deadlines, seasonal product launches, or strategic commitments to partners or customers.

The key is distinguishing between fixed external constraints and internal habits of control. Agile teams can remain responsive while still honoring legitimate delivery boundaries.

One tactic is using rolling forecasts instead of rigid roadmaps. These allow for periodic adjustments based on what is learned, rather than locking in decisions too early. Another approach is making work visible early and often to build shared confidence. Teams should also communicate estimates in terms of likelihood or probability, rather than absolute certainty, so that risks and variability are understood.

Finally, product strategies can focus on delivering minimum viable outcomes that fulfill essential needs, without overcommitting to full-feature sets too early. This creates space for responsiveness within a framework that still supports real-world business needs.

A Cultural Transformation Path

Escaping this anti-pattern isn't just a process shift. It's a cultural journey. Leaders need to move from valuing certainty to valuing adaptability.

In the early stage, often marked by control thinking, plans are enforced and deviations are punished. Agile is viewed primarily as a delivery mechanism for predefined solutions.

As teams gain experience, organizations shift toward tolerance for learning. Teams are allowed to raise blockers and revisit plans. Discovery is tolerated, though not yet celebrated.

In the next stage, adaptation is rewarded. Product direction shifts in response to evidence. Plans are adjusted when new information emerges. Change becomes a sign of maturity, not failure.

At the most evolved stage, strategy itself becomes emergent. Leadership expects change and uses it as a strategic advantage. Planning is dynamic. Predictability becomes the natural result of clear priorities, healthy feedback loops, and empowered teams.

Often, cultural transformation starts with a single team that shows what's possible, and is supported when they do.

Key Takeaways

• Obsession with predictability stems from anxiety and legacy management habits.
• True Agile delivery is grounded in adaptability, not false confidence.
• Predictability can be useful, but only when treated as an emergent property of clear feedback and healthy practices.
• Balancing external constraints with Agile flexibility requires transparency, honest forecasting, and customer-aligned planning.
• Cultural transformation involves moving from control and compliance toward learning, trust, and experimentation.

Summary

The obsession with predictability undermines agility at its core. It encourages teams to act safe rather than smart, to manage optics instead of outcomes. While some predictability is necessary, it must be earned through healthy systems, not forced through control. Agile is at its best when teams learn quickly, adjust with purpose, and deliver value incrementally. Organizations that shift their culture from prediction to adaptation unlock true resilience, not because they always know what's coming, but because they're ready for whatever does.